Within a small tribe of Native Indians, some of the men ask the chief how cold the winter will be...

The chief replies "It will be a very cold winter, we must get a lot of wood"

So, the men go out and collect the winter supply of wood, with some extra just in case. They go back the the chief and ask if it will be enough, to which, he replies: "It will be a very cold winter, go get more wood.

So again, the men go out and collect more wood, they find the Chief again and ask if it will be enough, to which he replies: "No, it will be a very cold winter, you must get more wood."

This happens four more times, until the Chief comes to the realization that if it is not a cold winter, they will kill him for lying to them, and for making them collect so much wood. So the Chief decides to the local town to ask the meteorologist how cold the winter will be. He get's on his horse and heads out. Upon reaching the meteorologist, he asks him "how cold will the winter be?".

The meteorologist responds "Oh, it will be a very cold winter this year"

The chief, relieved, asks how he knows this, to which the meteorologist replies "Just look at how much wood the Indians are collecting!"